Valtor Partners measures it. Independent research on conflict and markets, written so that every number can be checked against where it came from.
Tankers load at Iraq's Al Basra Oil Terminal in the northern Gulf, September 2004. U.S. Navy, PH2 Samuel W. Shavers, Public domain.
Not a news service. Each piece picks the story that is being underread and says what it is worth.
Container lines are returning to Suez on the strength of a declared ban on Saudi shipping. Almost none of them will be identified on the way through Bab el-Mandeb.
5 sourced figures
Qatar shipped 18 cargoes in six months against 509 a year earlier, and Europe enters winter short of gas. Henry Hub is no dearer than it was a year ago.
5 sourced figures
A $14 billion weapons package and a Pentagon visit to Beijing have stalled since May, and US Navy transits of the Strait have all but stopped. Taipei says nothing has changed, and its stock market set a record.
4 sourced figures
Baghdad cut the dinar by about 13% on 7 October, the first devaluation by a Gulf Arab state since the war began. A price boom does little for an exporter that cannot ship.
4 sourced figures
Russia's seaborne diesel exports fell to 144,000 barrels a day in September, the lowest in more than a decade. Moscow has offered 500,000 tonnes, and Kyiv says the refinery strikes go on.
5 sourced figures
Second-quarter profits rode the disruption. The return to Suez is releasing capacity into a market with almost 14 million TEU on order.
3 sourced figures
The Commission says there is no immediate risk to supply. Its case rests on LNG import capacity, which depends on the market Qatar has left.
3 sourced figures
One index of the world's news, one of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Both are rebuilt from their source data, and every figure on their pages is computed, not typed.
Caldara and Iacoviello's measure of war and terrorism in the news, monthly since 1990. The 1985–2019 average is 100.
146.2
September 2026, higher than 88% of months since January 1990.
Valtor's own index, built from the headlines of China's and Taiwan's national news agencies since 2015. The 2015–2024 average is 100.
152.9
September 2026, both sides, down from 161.3 in August 2026.
A figure here comes with what it measures, when it was true and where it came from. One that cannot be found is marked as missing, never estimated. Fact, inference and speculation are written as three different claims.
War cover, non-Saudi tanker, Red Sea
What it measures
0.2–0.3% of value
As of
When it was true
Source: Reuters, via Insurance Journal
Where it came from
Report forthcoming, October 2026
An event study of Taiwan's country-risk assets around every named PLA exercise since August 2022, and whether any reaction has faded.
The waters where military activity and shipping economics meet, which is where the path from conflict to price is easiest to measure honestly.
3 pieces
3 pieces
2 pieces
2 pieces
One piece
One piece
New analysis and notes, at most once a week. The address is used for nothing else, and one reply takes you off the list. Privacy notice.
A question about a piece or its method, or a number that looks wrong. Corrections are published when they change a finding.
Container terminal, Port of Hamburg, at night. mybroetchen, CC BY 2.0.
